THE LATINO ELECTORATE, VOTERS, AND POTENTIALLY DECISIVE STATES FOR THE 2016 ELECTION

THE LATINO ELECTORATE, VOTERS, AND POTENTIALLY DECISIVE STATES FOR THE 2016 ELECTION

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New York, New York, Feb. 10 — CNN en Español and the Center for Latin American, Caribbean and Latino Studies (CLACLS) at the Graduate Center, City University of New York (CUNY), have released the second in a series of detailed reports exploring the fastest growing minority voting bloc that could play an instrumental role in determining the next President of the United States.
 
The U.S. Latino electorate (citizens 18 years of age and older) is projected to be approximately 28 million people in 2016. However, because of historic low voter registration rates among Latinos, only about 13.5 million Latinos are expected to vote in this November’s election.
 
In CLACLS’s second report, THE LATINO ELECTORATE, VOTERS, AND POTENTIALLY DECISIVE STATES FOR THE 2016 ELECTION, the voting trends of Latinos in the nine states with the narrowest presidential victory margins in 2012 are the focus: Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. The report examines each of these states by looking at a series of statistical indicators on the electorate, registration and voter rates between 1992 and 2012, with projections to 2016. The key factors that will determine the role Latino voters play at the state level are registration rates and voter turnout, and in the past, both of these factors were different in each state.
 
“If elections are close in these states, despite the fact the Latino vote may be small, they could determine the victor and ultimately who will be elected President of the United States,” said Laird Bergad, report author and director of CLACLS.
 
Colorado
CLACLS projects that Latinos will comprise about 12.3% of all voters who will cast ballots in the state in 2016. The Latino vote will be critical in the state because of its relative size compared with states in which Latino populations were much smaller.
 
Florida
CLACLS projects that Latinos will comprise about 20% of all voters who will cast ballots in the state in 2016 and they will be decisive in determining which candidate wins Florida.
 
Nevada
CLACLS projects that Latinos will comprise nearly 20% of all voters who will cast ballots in the state in 2016 making the Latino vote critical for either candidate to carry the state. Latinos could play an even more important role if voter registration rates were higher.
 
New Hampshire
The Latino electorate was extraordinarily small in New Hampshire at 23,445 people as of 2014 census data. Small sample sizes make 2016 projections statistically unreliable.
 
North Carolina
Mitt Romney won North Carolina by 2.0% of the popular vote in 2012 and exit polls indicated that 68% of Latinos in the state voted for Obama.
Ÿ CLACLS projects that Latinos will comprise about 2.0% of all voters who will cast ballots in the state in 2016. If the election in North Carolina is extremely close, the Latino vote could be important.
 
Ohio
President Obama won Ohio by 3.0% of the popular vote in 2012 and exit polls indicated that 54% of Latinos in the state voted for him, one of the lowest state levels of support in the nation.
Ÿ CLACLS projects that Latinos will comprise about 2.2% of all voters who will cast ballots in the state in 2016. If the election in Ohio is extremely close, the Latino vote could be important.
 
Pennsylvania
CLACLS projects that Latinos will comprise about 4.1% of all voters who will cast ballots in the state in 2016. If the election in Pennsylvania is extremely close, the Latino vote could be decisive. If registration rates were higher, Latinos would be an even more important political force in the state.
 
Virginia
91% of Latinos are projected by CLACLS to register to vote in 2016 compared with the national average of 58.7% in 2012. If this comes to fruition, it will be the highest state-level rate in the nation.
Ÿ CLACLS projects that Latinos will comprise about 3.3% of all voters who will cast ballots in the state in 2016. If the election in Virginia is extremely close, the Latino vote could be decisive.
 
Wisconsin
CLACLS projects that Latinos will comprise about 2.3% of all voters who will cast ballots in the state in 2016. Because of low voter registration rates, Latinos will in all likelihood not be an important factor in determining the victor in the state unless it is won by a razor-thin margin.
 
For more comprehensive details read the report here: THE LATINO ELECTORATE, VOTERS, AND POTENTIALLY DECISIVE STATES FOR THE 2016 ELECTION
 
CLACLS’s flagship program is the Latino Data Project, established in 2003 by Laird W. Bergad founding and current CLACLS director. Professor Bergad is a Distinguished Professor in the Department of Latin American, Puerto Rican, and Latino Studies at Lehman College and with the Ph.D. Program in History at the Graduate Center. 
 
The Latino Data Project conducts detailed quantitative research on the Latino population of the United States and New York City metropolitan region, analyzing raw data files produced by the U.S. Census Bureau and other government agencies.
 
About the CNN en Español and the Center for Latin American, Caribbean and Latino Studies Partnership:
 
CNN en Español and the Center for Latin American, Caribbean and Latino Studies (CLACLS) at the Graduate Center, City University of New York (CUNY), have partnered to provide an exclusive focus on Latino voters in America, the fastest growing minority voting bloc that could play an instrumental role in determining the next President of the United States. Through rigorous academic research generated by CLACLS’ Latino Data Project, CNN en Español will broadcast detailed reports about Latinos in the American elections over several multi-media platforms geared toward Spanish-speaking audiences around the world, including 7.4 million U.S. households.
 
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Press Contacts:
CNN Communications
Isabel Bucaram, US
305 400 6806
Isabel.bucaram@turner.com
 
Mariana Pinango, LatAm
404 827 3803
mariana.pinango@turner.com
 
The Graduate Center, CUNY
Tanya Domi
212 817 7283
Tdomi@gc.cuny.edu
 

Submitted on: FEB 10, 2016

Category: Press Room