Demographic Change and Voting Patterns Among Latinos in the Northeast Corridor

NEWS Press Release

LATINOS IN NORTH EAST COORIDOR STATES WILL BOLSTER DEMOCRATIC VICTOR; LATINOS IN PA. COULD PROVE TO BE DECISIVE IN CLOSE ELECTION

 
NEW YORK, April 11, 2016 – CNN en Español and the Center for Latin American, Caribbean and Latino Studies (CLACLS) at the Graduate Center, City University of New York (CUNY), has released today the fourth in a series of detailed reports about the Latino vote present in the upcoming North East corridor states which indicates that Latinos will bolster an overwhelming victory by the Democratic candidate in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut during the general election.
The report DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND VOTING PATTERNS AMONG LATINOS IN THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR STATES: NEW YORK, NEW JERSEY, PENNSYLVANIA AND CONNETICUT indicates that the Latino vote in the State of Pennsylvania, if the election proves to be close and the support by Latinos for the Democratic candidate holds, Latinos could prove to be the “swing vote” that would deliver 20 electoral votes to the victor.
“It is ironic that this may be the case in Pennsylvania if there is a tight election there,”   said Laird Bergad, report author and director of CLACLS. “Of the four states considered here Latinos have the smallest population and electorate in Pennsylvania and are projected by CLACLS to account for about 4% of all votes to be cast in the state in November 2016.” 
In 2012 80% of Pennsylvania’s Latinos voted for the reelection of President Obama.
The following findings are key data points extrapolated from the report:
  • Latinos in the northeast corridor states of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut have increased as percentages of total populations and electorates in each state between 1990 and 2014, although in Pennsylvania expansion was not as dynamic. Latinos voted overwhelmingly for the Democr as was the case in 2008 and 2012
 
  • In New York, New Jersey and Connecticut President Obama won reelection by extraordinary margins in 2012 and was heavily supported by Latinos. Exit polls indicated that 89% of New York Latinos voted Democratic in 2012; 79% in Connecticut; and 80% in Pennsylvania.  The sample size was too small for New Jersey but it is likely that Latinos voted Democratic at similar rates.
 
  • There is no reason to believe that the Democratic candidate will not carry these states by large margins in November 2016.  Latinos will play a role in this margin of victory but not a decisive one.
 
  • President Obama won Pennsylvania by a 5% margin in 2012.  Even though the Latino electorate is relatively small, projected by CLACLS to comprise about 4% of all votes to be cast in November 2016, if the election is very close Latinos could have an important role in determining who wins the state.
 
  • In New York Latinos comprised 12% of the state’s population and 8% of its electorate in 1990.  This increased to 19% of the population and 14% of the electorate in 2014.
 
  • In New Jersey Latinos comprised 9% of the state’s population and 6% of its electorate in 1990.  This increased to 20% of the population and 14% of the electorate in 2014.
 
  • In Connecticut Latinos comprised 6% of the state’s population and 5% of its electorate in 1990.  This increased to 16% of the population and 11% of the electorate in 2014.
 
  • In Pennsylvania Latinos comprised 2% of the state’s population and 1% of its electorate in 1990.  This increased to 7% of the population and 5% of the electorate in 2014.
 
  • New York Latinos registered to vote at high rates in 2008 (62%) and 2012 (64%) and CLACLS projects a registration rate of 66% in 2016, much higher than the Latino national average of 59%.
 
  • About 55% of the New York Latino electorate voted in 2008 and 54% in 2012. CLACLS projects that about 55% will vote in November 2016, higher than the 48% national average.
 
  • Latinos comprised 5% of all votes cast in the 1992 presidential election in New York State and this rose to 11% in 2012. CLACLS projects that 12% of all votes to be cast in November 2016 in New York will be Latino.
 
  • New Jersey Latinos registered to vote at 59% in 2008 and 61% 2012 and CLACLS projects a registration rate of 59% in 2016, in line with the Latino national average of 59%.
 
  • About 51% of the New Jersey Latino electorate voted in 2008 and in 2012. CLACLS projects that about 50% will vote in November 2016, marginally higher than the 48% national average.
 
  • Latinos comprised 5% of all votes cast in the 1992 presidential election in New Jersey and this rose to 11% in 2012, exactly the same as in New York. CLACLS projects that 13% of all votes to be cast in November 2016 will be from Latinos in New Jersey.
 
  • Connecticut Latinos registered to vote at 55% in 2008 and 58% 2012 and CLACLS projects a registration rate of 62% in 2016, marginally higher than the Latino national average of 59%.
 
  • About 47% of the Connecticut Latino electorate voted in 2008 and in 2012. CLACLS projects that about 48% will vote in November 2016 which is precisely the national average.
 
  • Latinos comprised 3% of all votes cast in the 1992 presidential election in Connecticut and this rose to 7% in 2012. CLACLS projects that 8% of all votes to be cast in November 2016 will be from Latinos in Connecticut.
 
  • In Pennsylvania 59% of eligible Latinos were registered to vote in 2008 and 55% 2012 and CLACLS projects a registration rate of 54% in 2016 lower than the Latino national average of 59%.
 
  • About 49% of the Pennsylvania Latino electorate voted in 2008 and 45% in 2012. CLACLS projects that about 42% will vote in November 2016, lower than the 48% national average.
 
  • Latinos comprised less than1% of all votes cast in the 1992 presidential election in Pennsylvania and this rose to 3% in 2012. CLACLS projects that about 4% of all votes to be cast in November 2016 will be Latino in Pennsylvania.
About the CLACLS Latino Data Project:
CLACLS’s flagship program is the Latino Data Project, established in 2003 by Laird W. Bergad founding and current CLACLS director. The Latino Data Project conducts detailed quantitative research on the Latino population of the United States and New York City metropolitan region, analyzing raw data files produced by the U.S. Census Bureau and other government agencies.
 
About the CNN en Español and the Center for Latin American, Caribbean and Latino Studies Partnership:
 
CNN en Español and the Center for Latin American, Caribbean and Latino Studies (CLACLS) at the Graduate Center, City University of New York (CUNY), have partnered to provide an exclusive focus on Latino voters in America, the fastest growing minority voting bloc that could play an instrumental role in determining the next President of the United States. Through rigorous academic research generated by CLACLS’ Latino Data Project, CNN en Español will broadcast detailed reports about Latinos in the American elections over several multi-media platforms geared toward Spanish-speaking audiences around the world, including 7.4 million U.S. households.
 
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FOR A COPY OF THE REPORT CONTACT THE FOLLOWING:
 
Press Contacts:
CNN Communications
Isabel Bucaram, US
305 400 6806
Isabel.bucaram@turner.com
 
Mariana Pinango, LatAm
404 827 3803
mariana.pinango@turner.com
 
The Graduate Center, CUNY
Tanya Domi
 212 817 7283
TDomi@gc.cuny.edu
 

Submitted on: APR 18, 2016

Category: Diversity | Press Room